JUST human activity is the main cause of atmospheric changes of the last decade

It is a human activity is the main cause of atmospheric changes of recent decades, it is the human activity is the main cause of atmospheric changes of recent decades, and while politicians are prepared to criticize the upcoming report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific community continues to forge new research.


The eruption of Mount Pinatubo, photographed with a U.S. Air Force base, Clark, June 12, 1991. It is the only natural phenomenon that has had a significant impact on the Earth's atmosphere from 1979 to 2005. (Photo by USGS.)

KL as something already written about the attempts to make the climate models as accurately reflect the processes that control the climate. A new article shows how such models help to understand Thuabout is really going on with the planet. In this sense, climate models are no different from astrophysical models and plate tectonics: they all describe processes that can not be reproduced in the laboratory, but for which some of the data collected.

In our case, the set of factors (from stochastic processes to the cycle of currents in the ocean) creates a short-term variability of the climate system, which is worth considering as noise. With respect to these factors superposition are called signals - significant changes which lead to long-term changes of climate. They are often referred to as climatic factors (forcings), because they are introducing a new climate equilibrium.

Decades of research have allowed to identify such climate-forming factors such as variations in solar activity, volcanic eruptions and changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Studi attribute just once more consider these factors in an attempt to determine which of them caused the recent changes in the climate system.

Attribution is possible, because climatic factors affect the atmosphere distinct ways (as an English-speaking scientists like to say, they leave fingerprints», fingerprints). For example, the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere cools, for ozone - a greenhouse gas, that is, one that traps heat. Conversely, strong volcanic eruptions emit large amounts of material, and some of the particles absorb sunlight, which leads to heating of the stratosphere.

But volcanoes are not only compensate for the loss of ozone: other particles of volcanic materials reflect light, not allowing it to penetrate into the lower atmosphere (troposphere), thereby cooling them. Thus it is possible to attribute (attribute) the observed changes in various climatic factors.

The authors of the new study compared the satellite data that provide a three-dimensional picture of the atmosphere, with detailed and general information about temperature. The results were compared with the testimony of several climate models, which run with different initial conditions, as when climatic factors were only solar activity, volcanoes, or just all kinds of human impact (greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone depletion). Also carried out simulations with the only natural and anthropogenic impacts only, and then both.

Tracing a large portion of the trend of satellite data (from January 1979 to December 2005), the researchers were able to show that solar activity has not had nearly no effect on the climate (and this is logical, because in a given period of solar activity have not changed). For isklyucheniemPinatubo, there were no violent eruptions. And the bottom line natural effect was minimal: a very slight cooling of the stratosphere outside the poles and as a weak warming in the lower atmosphere.

This result is very hard to reconcile with the satellite data, which indicate strong cooling of the stratosphere, reaching even the upper troposphere. On the contrary, in the lower troposphere have warmed, especially closer to the North Pole, while the air over Antarctica has warmed slightly.

And much better, perfectly combined observations from the testimony of models in which human-induced climate-factors were the only ones. They talk about the strong cooling of the stratosphere over both poles and weaker cold weather in other parts of it, as well as a warming in the lower atmosphere, and the temperature in the Arctic has increased particularly strongly. When you combine the natural and anthropogenic impacts coincidence with the satellite data was even clearer.

Hence, the authors conclude that it is human activity is the main cause of atmospheric changes of recent decades.

Of course, the match is not perfect. Models underestimate the cooling of the stratosphere and overestimate the warming in the lower atmosphere. Furthermore, unlike the model observed data indicate a strong warming in the Arctic.

There is a question about the extent of human influence on the atmosphere. Statistical calculations indicate that it is high. But the authors go even further, introducing to quantify noise (short-term climate variability) and showing that (except for a short period in the eruption of Mount Pinatubo) the signal of anthropogenic influence rises above the noise of natural variability.

The authors believe that the results obtained are reliable, despite all the uncertainties inherent in the models and the observations.

In short, nothing new, just made a careful analysis of what has been analyzed many times. Nevertheless, it is a good reminder that, as a result of which the IPCC staff come to their conclusions.

 in the wake of PNAS, Ars Technica, compulenta.computerra.ru

The Breathing Earth

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Earth, our home planet, is a beautiful blue and white ball when seen from space. The third planet from the Sun, it is the largest of the inner planets. Earth is the only planet known to support life and to have liquid water at the surface.

Warm near the equator and cold at the poles, our planet is able to support a variety of ecosystems because of its diverse climates. Earth's climates have changed incredibly during its 4.6 billion year history. Today, climates are warming more rapidly as natural processes are affected by modern global changes caused by humans.

Earth's climate is warming. It is almost certain that human activities are causing our planet to warm. According to Climate Change 2007, the forth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is about a 9 out of 10 chance of this. The human activities that are causing global warming include burning fossil fuels, changes in land use, and agriculture. Burning fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal is releasing greenhouses gases into the atmosphere. Land use changes are decreasing the amount of plants that take greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. And agriculture is releasing greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide.

This is causing air and oceans to warm. Snow and ice in Earth's polar regions melts. Sea level rises because of warmer oceans and the added water from melting glaciers and snow. Many effects of global warming have been seen over the past few decades. Arctic temperatures have risen at twice the rate of the global average in the past century. The amount of precipitation in different regions of the world has changed, and so have aspects of extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves, and the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons.

According to computer models, whose results were summarized in the IPCC report, more global warming is in our future. For the next two decades global warming of about 0.2° Celsius is projected. If we continue to emit as many, or more, greenhouse gases, this will cause more warming during the 21st century than we saw in the 20th century. During the 20th century Earth's average temperature rose 0.6° Celsius. During the 21st century, various computer models predict that Earth's average temperature will rise between 1.8 and 4.0° Celsius.

HUMAN IMPACT ON CLIMATE PROVEN

The human impact on climate proven human impact on the climate proved at the plenary session of the Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which adopted the final version of the first part of the Fifth Assessment Report.


The man left footprints all over the place. (Infographics Skeptical Science.)

In the center of attention - the assertion that the IPCC is 95% sure of the nature of anthropogenic climate changes observed in the last 60 years. In the previous report, released in 2007, seems to be figured 90%. In fact this is not true.

To be totally accurate, then said the following: The greater part of the observed changes in global average temperature since the mid XX century is very likely (very likely), associated with the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

But the current wording, compare: It is highly likely (extremely likely), that the human influence on climate has caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature in the years 1951-2010.

See the difference? The 2007 report has focused on greenhouse gas emissions, and is now extended to all forms of human impact on the climate, including the cooling effect of aerosols (substances not only pollute the air but also scatter sunlight). Last compensates for about a third of warming caused by greenhouse gases.

But even with the cooling effects of human activities still remains the main source of global warming observed for six decades.

The annual average temperature change (thin light red line) and the 11-year average (thick dark red line), according to NASA GISS. Total annual surface solar irradiance (thin blue line) and the 11-year average (thick blue line), according to Krivova et al. (1880 to 1978) and PMOD (1979 to 2009). 

What is the main cause of global warming? Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the warming observed since 1951 can be attributed to various natural and anthropogenic factors and their contribution difficult to assess. Contribution of greenhouse gases in the near-surface average world warming, probably located in the area 0,5-1,3 ° C, and the other human climatic factors, including aerosol effect - ranging from 0.6 to 0,1 ° C .  

And that is not the cause of global warming? Natural external factors (for example, solar activity) and natural internal factors (such as cyclical processes in the oceans): The contribution of natural climate forcing is likely to be in the range of -0.1 to 0,1 ° C; internal variability - from 0.1 to 0,1 ° C ».

In general, over the past 60 years, global average near-surface warming was about 0,6 ° C. According to the best estimate of the IPCC, greenhouse gases have increased the temperature by about 0,9 ° C, and produced by us aerosols cool the planet somewhere at 0,3 ° C. During this period, natural external factors did not have little or no effect on global temperature. For example, solar activity since 1950 has not shown anything remarkable.

As to the natural internal variability of the climate system of the Earth, the short-term noise in the long term be reduced to zero. Warm and cold periods in the life of the ocean offset each other so that the long-term impact on global average temperature, they also do not have.

So, with 95 percent certainty the IPCC claims that the person responsible for greater rigor is often observed in 1951 near-surface warming. The most likely estimate is that we - the cause of 100% of warming.

United Nations Report Does Not Answer Pause In warming

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An enormous U.N. report on the scientific data behind global warming was made available Monday, yet it offers little concrete explanation for an earthly oddity: the planet's climate has hit the pause button.

Since 1998, there has been no significant increase in global average surface temperature, and some areas -- notably the Northern Hemisphere -- have actually cooled. The 2,200-page new Technical Report attributes that to a combination of several factors, including natural variability, reduced heating from the sun and the ocean acting like a "heat sink" to suck up extra warmth in the atmosphere.

One problem with that conclusion, according to some climate scientists, is that the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has limited the hiatus to 10-15 years. Anastasios Tsonis, distinguished professor at the University of Wisconsin -- Milwaukee, believes the pause will last much longer than that. He points to repeated periods of warming and cooling in the 20th century. 'I know that the models are not adequate ... they don't agree with reality.'

- Anastasios Tsonis, distinguished professor at the University of Wisconsin -- Milwaukee

"Each one of those regimes lasts about 30 years ... I would assume something like another 15 years of leveling off or cooling," he told Fox News.

That goes well beyond the window the IPCC has acknowledged, which Tsonis and other scientists believe will significantly change the predictions for temperature rise over the next century.

"I know that the models are not adequate," Tsonis told Fox News. "There are a lot of climate models out there. They don't agree with each other -- and they don't agree with reality."

In fact, the IPCC's massive, complex new report acknowledges that none of the models predicted the hiatus. The authors write that it could be due to climate models over-predicting the response to increasing greenhouse gases, or a failure to account for water vapor in the upper atmosphere.

The bottom line -- no one saw it coming.

"Almost all historical simulations do not reproduce the observed recent warming hiatus," the report states.

Tsonis was pleased that the IPCC acknowledged that natural variability may have played a part in the stall in upward temperature trends. But he said the report's authors totally ignored groundbreaking research he presented six and four years ago that fully explained such "pauses." He attributes them to an intricate interaction of oceanic and atmospheric modes which either warm or cool the planet on a time scale of decades.

Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth And Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, says the IPCC is taking a huge credibility hit over the hiatus -- and its pronouncement that it is 95 percent certain that human activity is responsible for most global warming.

"I'm not happy with the IPCC," she told Fox News. "I think it has torqued the science in an unfortunate direction."

That torquing, she suggests, is because the money in climate science (the funding, that is) is tied to embellishing the IPCC narrative, especially the impacts of global warming. She is critical of the IPCC's leadership as well, in particular its chairman, Rajendra Pachauri.

"They have explicit policy agendas," Curry told Fox News. "Their proclamations are very alarmist and very imperative as to what we should be doing. And this does not inspire confidence in the final product."

Other scientists argue passionately against such talk.

Penn State's Michael Mann -- who authored the famous "hockey stick" graph showing a stunning rise in temperatures in the late 20th century -- believes this latest IPCC report only confirms what he has been arguing for years. That the Earth is warming, and humans are to blame.

"We cannot explain the warming through natural causes," he told Fox News. "It can only be explained by the increased greenhouse gas concentrations from human fossil fuel burning."

Mann goes so far as to say that if you remove the "noise" from the recent pause in temperature rise, human activity is to blame for 100 percent of the global warming.

Tsonis strongly disagrees. He acknowledges that human activity is likely having an impact on climate, but adds "Nobody has ever proven for 100 percent that the long-term warming is man-made. In my educated guess I will think something like less than 30 percent."

Judith Curry believes the approach the IPCC takes to climate change is fundamentally flawed. Consensus-seeking, she says, introduces bias into the science.

"They don't challenge it and say, well, how might this be wrong?" she told Fox News. "What are all the different reasons or ways this could be wrong? And once you start looking at it that way, you come up with a lot of different answers."

Melting Arctic ice and permafrost DANGER FOR HUMANITY

The melting of Arctic sea ice and permafrost is dangerous for mankind Melting Arctic ice and permafrost is dangerous for mankind.

Climate warming in the Arctic will result in changes for the entire planet, including catastrophic.

High North is rapidly melting permafrost, lakes form, with their bubbles float to the bottom of methane.

Some Siberian lakes area since 2006 has increased by five times.

As for the Arctic Ocean, an area of ice in the summer, is sharply reduced, and estprognozy that by 2030 the ocean for the summer will be ice-free in its entirety.

On the global implications of the changes say little. But if the direction of currents in the oceans will change in Asia could disrupt the monsoon schedule that affect agriculture, and nearly 2 billion people can stay without food.

Emissions of methane from thawing subsoil can unwind uncontrollably flywheel global warming.

Today in the permafrost zone is a quarter of the total land area of the Northern Hemisphere. Here and there, and it stretches under the ocean floor. Because of its melting already collapsing buildings and tear ducts, but the most dangerous - is the presence in its deposits of organic carbon in the form of frozen remains of animals and plants.

Scientists studying the carbon cycle, believe that the bacteria that devour all organic matter in melting permafrost layer will generate heat and thus accelerate the melting depth.

In Siberia, the carbon will be emitted into the atmosphere mainly in the form of methane, a powerful greenhouse effect causes.

The land falls, there are more thermal karst lakes. As a result of the deep layers of the permafrost may not disappear after 500, as previously thought, but after 100 years, scientists have explained to the publication.

Meanwhile, in the Arctic, there are other natural sources of methane. The sediments in shallow water, and in a warming emissions are also accelerating. As a result, even if anthropogenic emissions of gases has stopped warming unstoppable, emphasizes the publication.

Melting ice in the Arctic is also dangerous because the salinity of the Arctic Ocean is falling.

Meanwhile, the river - again due to warming - into the ocean 10% more fresh water than a half-century ago. The result can be broken mechanism known as the conveyor of currents in the oceans - the thermohaline convection. A flow speed is reduced, and in colder northern Europe, and in Asia, it is possible to cease the monsoons - the main source of water for the region, which provide food every third person on the planet.

How likely is such a scenario, it is not clear, but ignore this option is dangerous. Warming in the Arctic should worry not only polar bears, the author concludes.

http://www.inopressa.ru

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ARCTIC ICE MELTING PERMAFROST CHEMTRAILS HAARP !!! DESTRUCTION OF EARTH

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The Mother's words to the daughter about how priests with lawful faculties of absolution, no matter what kind of sinners they themselves are, are able to absolve from sins; the same applies to the sacrament of the Eucharist.
SAINT BRIDGET PATRON SAINT OF EUROPE BOOK 4
Chapter 41

The Mother speaks: "Go to him who has the faculty of absolution. No matter how leprous the doorkeeper is, he can still open the door as well as a healthy man, provided he has the keys. It is the same with absolution and the sacrament of the altar. No matter who the minister is, provided he has a lawful faculty of absolution, he can absolve from sins. Therefore, no priest is to be rejected.

However, I would forewarn you about two things. The first is that he will not get what he so longs for in the flesh. The other is that his life will soon be cut short. Just as an ant that carries its load of grain day and night sometimes falls down and dies right when it gets close to the nest, and the grain remains outside it, so too, right when this man has begun to reach the goal of his efforts, he will die and be punished, and his empty efforts will come to naught."