Because of global warming, our planet warms and people will become more harsh and cruel?
Frequent outbreaks gneva.Neuzheli if global warming our planet heats up, then people will become more brutal and cruel?
This opinion is shared by many scientists. And now, scientists and economists offering their first quantitative assessment of how global climate change may lead to increased hostility of the people.
The objects of scientific analysis, the results of which were published last week in the journal Science, have become major events such as wars and coups and conflicts of a personal nature - murder, rape and domestic violence.
Not all who are concerned about climate change agree with the conclusions of these studies. But if all economists' forecasts are correct, by 2050 because of global warming, the number of international and inter-ethnic tensions will increase by 50%, and interpersonal conflicts - by 16%.
In earlier studies have found a link between weather anomalies - droughts and floods - and the intensification of the armed conflict and social unrest. Most of brutality and violence associated with food shortages or unemployment.
In other research paper traces the relationship between the heat wave and increased aggression, and took into account the growth of all kinds of aggressive behavior - from domestic violence to the tantrums of drivers on the roads. In one study even suggested increasing the likelihood that the pitchers are specifically aim the ball at batters.
This connection Mezhuyev weather changes, and escalation could be observed even 4,000 years ago, says Solomon Xian (Solomon Hsiang), Associate Professor of Public Municipal University of California at Berkeley, who led the meta-analysis.
One of the great empires - Akkad (the state that existed in Mesopotamia in the XXIV-XXII centuries BC - ca. Trans.) - Disappeared during the drought - says in an interview Hsien Shots. - In dry years have disappeared and almost all Chinese dynasties. And they recovered only after abated climate anomalies.
And recently, when the monitoring of climate change has become possible with the help of his own radar, intensified research efforts to identify possible links between climate anomalies and outbreaks of violence. Xian and his colleagues managed to find more than one thousand works on the subject.
According to Xian, for analysis, they reduced the list of selected works and of these only 60 most research-grade papers. And then they immediately saw a clear trend: the temperature of the pressure or the amount of rainfall from the average - and, in one way or another - increases the probability of acts of cruelty and violence. At each temperature deviation from the normal upward (for New York City, for example, is about 3 degrees Celsius), the likelihood of increasing the amount of interpersonal conflict is about 4%, while the larger clashes - 16%.
Conflicts arise as a result of tensions in the personal or inter-cultural relations, - the Xian - and abnormal climatic events [increase] the likelihood that such tensions escalate in brutality and violence.
Some scientists have warned that the results of a study conducted Syanem, do not give the full picture, and they are not all of the causes of conflict.
It would be wrong if, after reading his article, people will think that the reason for the increase of violence in the world began to climate change - says in his interview Shots environmental scientist Andrew Solow (Andrew Solow) from the Institute of Oceanography at Woods Hole (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution). - Indeed, in recent years the level of violence in the world has decreased.
According to Solow, in the last decades have seen a steady decline in the level of street crime in the United States. In West and Central Africa, where there are clear of climate change, it should be noted decrease in the total number of internal strife and civil war.
This does not mean that the climate does not wag the level of violence - adds Solow - but the brutality and violence depend on other factors - social and economic. And probably, they contribute to reduce aggression in the society we are seeing now.
inosmi.ru the footsteps Could Hotter Temperatures From Climate Change Boost Violence?, inosmi.ru
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